Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Catholic Vote Key: Both Sides Want It, Democratic Effort May Be Better Set Up |
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Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Catholic Vote Key: Both Sides Want It, Democratic Effort May Be Better Set Up
September 14,2008
By: James O'Toole
Sen. Sam Brownback made his way up the long, curving drive of Seton Hill College last week for the third stop on a day that started in Ohio and would end in Washington, D.C.
The Kansas Republican gave up on his own presidential race last year before the first Iowa snowflake fell. He doesn't have to run for re-election to the Senate until 2010, but he's back on the trail, trolling for votes for his colleague, Sen. John McCain. Mr. Brownback is co-chairman of Catholics for McCain, and his Greensburg visit was one skirmish in a battle for one of the largest bloc of swing voters in play this year.
According to exit polls, a majority of Catholics have sided with the winning candidate in each presidential election since 1972 -- although there's at least a couple of asterisks next to that streak.
In 2000, Catholics voted for former Vice President Al Gore, who won the popular vote before being tripped up by a few hanging chads and that pesky Electoral College.
There is still some statistical debate on whether President Bush did or didn't win the Catholic majority against Sen. John F. Kerry in 2004, although there is no doubt that it was close.
And there is also debate over how much sense it makes to think of a "Catholic vote."
"They're not monolithic," Mr. Brownback said after his brief speech to a mixed group of about 100, including students.
Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., is, in one sense, Mr. Brownback's opposite number as one of Sen. Barack Obama's most prominent Catholic advocates. He shares his fellow senator's view of the diversity of Catholic voters.
"I always start from the premise that I don't buy the idea that there is a Catholic vote that's monolithic," Mr. Casey said in an interview last week.
Still, there are Catholics, and they vote. So in a year with a closely divided electorate, both campaigns are doing all that they can to pull them into their pew.
Indeed, a Pew Forum survey last month found Catholics closely divided in the presidential race. Among all Catholics, the Pew researchers found Mr. Obama ahead, 47 percent to 42 percent. But that figure is boosted by Mr. Obama's stronger support among heavily Catholic Hispanic voters who are disproportionately concentrated in states such as Texas, California and New York that are not considered to be in play in November.
Considering just white, non-Hispanic Catholics, the Pew survey found a near dead heat, with 45 percent favoring the Republican and 44 percent the Democrat.
For Mr. Obama, that is a slightly weaker showing than either Mr. Gore or Mr. Kerry recorded at the same point in the campaign. (Mr. Kerry was ahead by 50 percent to 47 percent in an August 2004 Pew survey, although his Catholic support eroded by Election Day.)
The Pew researchers also reported that the intensity of Mr. Obama's support lagged Mr. Kerry's numbers. Only 21 percent of the Catholics surveyed in August said they "strongly" supported Mr. Obama, compared to 36 percent for Mr. Kerry at the equivalent point.
Mr. McCain faced the same problem. Just 17 percent of Catholic voters voiced strong support for him compared to 27 percent for President Bush four years ago.
Mr. Casey said he is confident that Mr. Obama can make gains in numbers and strength of support before November.
"There's no question that over the last 25 years or so, Democrats have struggled with garnering the share of the [Catholic] vote that, frankly, they should be getting," he said.
To do that, he added, Mr. Obama needs to "talk about his values, his faith, his struggles and also, a lot about policies and solutions for -- as the scriptures talk about, the least -- the last, and the lost."
The problem of abortion
One obvious impediment for Democrats is the subject of abortion, a make-or break issue for many Catholics and church leaders. Surveys and voting patterns, however, suggest that even for many Catholics who oppose abortion, it is not the sole determinant.
In tone, the platforms of the two parties went in opposite directions on the issue this summer. On substance, both sides hewed to their bedrock positions -- the Democrats, pro-abortion rights, the Republicans, anti-abortion.
But the Democratic platform, while affirming its support for Roe v. Wade, added language this year designed to strike a more accommodating tone.
"We also recognize that such health care and education help reduce the number of unintended pregnancies and thereby also reduce the need for abortions," it states.
"The Democratic Party also strongly supports a woman's decision to have a child by ensuring access to and availability of programs for pre- and post-natal health care, parenting skills, income support, and caring adoption programs."
The Republican platform, by contrast, was praised by prominent social conservatives for its uncompromising condemnation of abortion, including a call for a human life amendment to the Constitution and for legislation "to make clear that the 14th Amendment protections apply to unborn children."
Mr. Casey said it was "too simplistic," to view Catholic voters solely through the lens of the abortion issue. While strongly pro-life himself, Mr. Casey said that "you can make the case that many Catholics are as conflicted on abortion as others. ... Certainly some Catholics will disagree with [Mr. Obama] on abortion. I've tried to make the case that he is one who reaches out to bridge the differences ... who reaches across to [support policies] to actually reduce the number of abortions."
"More broadly," he added, "I think there is a lot of agreement among Catholics on issues like the [Iraq] war."
Mr. Brownback highlighted the abortion issue in his Seton Hill talk, telling a receptive crowd, "We have a big difference on the Supreme Court; we're one vote away from the court being in a position to overturn Roe v. Wade."
But after his talk he echoed the observation that Catholic votes would turn on a variety of issues.
"They are concerned about moral issues but they want to hear the whole package," he said. "They want to hear about life and marriage, but they're also asking, 'What about the economy?' 'What about energy? What about security?' "
Mr Brownback, a Catholic convert, acknowledged that it will be a challenge for the McCain campaign to turn that newfound energy into an effective grass-roots operation.
GOP effort 'lethargic'
Four years ago, both sides mounted intense and successful voter turnout operations. The GOP effort was rooted in a meticulously cultivated network of community contacts and outreach. Catholics, like evangelical Christians, were a big part of that. The campaign started work more than a year in advance of the election, collecting membership lists and enlisting a vast network of neighborhood volunteers.
That structure doesn't exist for the McCain forces. Mr. Brownback described the pre-convention grass-roots organizing of the GOP as "lethargic at best," for much of the last year.
"So I think they're behind organizationally from where the Bush organization was in '04," he said. "The party was more motivated going into that than what they have been this cycle."
But he maintained that the new, improved, post-convention GOP organization was "fired up and ready to move out ... and none too soon." The Obama campaign, in contrast, has been working for months at assembling grass-roots organizations, including Catholics, in key states.
"[Mr. Obama's] campaign has had literally hundreds of events where they've sat down and listened to people of faith," Mr. Casey said.
Sean Smith, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, said that in addition to the use of more prominent supporters such as Mr. Casey, "underneath that is the ground game, grass-roots, neighbor to neighbor."
He said the campaign was organizing a series of house parties and Sunday brunches aimed at nurturing a network of Catholic supporters.
Beyond those nuts and bolts, Mr. Casey contended that Mr. Obama, with steps such as his embrace of faith-based initiatives, had offered a break with a party that had sometimes seemed uncomfortable communicating with religious voters.
"I do think nationally, our party has made a lot of progress, certainly in the last decade, in making religion and faith part of the discussion ... in not being seen as the solely secular party," Mr. Casey said. "Democrats are every bit as faithful and concerned about religion on the national level as Republicans, but for a lot of reasons, what took hold over a generation was a sense that you talk about issues, and not about faith."
Mr. Smith noted hopefully that the choice of Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., a Catholic, as the Democrat's vice-presidential choice might also enhance the ticket's appeal to other Catholics. Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, speculated last week that Mr. Biden's selection might account for an uptick in the Democrats' Catholic support in Pennsylvania.
But having a Catholic on the ticket can cut both ways in an era in which some Catholic bishops have been increasingly outspoken in confronting Catholic politicians who support abortion rights.
In 2004, several bishops stated that Mr. Kerry, a Catholic, should be denied the sacrament of Communion because of his voting record on the issue. Earlier this summer, a group of Catholic bishops, one of them, Cardinal Justin Rigali of Philadelphia, issued a statement criticizing Mr. Biden for stating that while he believes that life begins at conception, the issues was a "personal and private" matter of religious faith he would not impose on others.
"Protection of innocent human life is not an imposition of personal religious conviction but a demand of justice," the bishops said.
Sen. Sam Brownback made his way up the long, curving drive of Seton Hill College last week for the third stop on a day that started in Ohio and would end in Washington, D.C.
The Kansas Republican gave up on his own presidential race last year before the first Iowa snowflake fell. He doesn't have to run for re-election to the Senate until 2010, but he's back on the trail, trolling for votes for his colleague, Sen. John McCain. Mr. Brownback is co-chairman of Catholics for McCain, and his Greensburg visit was one skirmish in a battle for one of the largest bloc of swing voters in play this year.
According to exit polls, a majority of Catholics have sided with the winning candidate in each presidential election since 1972 -- although there's at least a couple of asterisks next to that streak.
In 2000, Catholics voted for former Vice President Al Gore, who won the popular vote before being tripped up by a few hanging chads and that pesky Electoral College.
There is still some statistical debate on whether President Bush did or didn't win the Catholic majority against Sen. John F. Kerry in 2004, although there is no doubt that it was close.
And there is also debate over how much sense it makes to think of a "Catholic vote."
"They're not monolithic," Mr. Brownback said after his brief speech to a mixed group of about 100, including students.
Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., is, in one sense, Mr. Brownback's opposite number as one of Sen. Barack Obama's most prominent Catholic advocates. He shares his fellow senator's view of the diversity of Catholic voters.
"I always start from the premise that I don't buy the idea that there is a Catholic vote that's monolithic," Mr. Casey said in an interview last week.
Still, there are Catholics, and they vote. So in a year with a closely divided electorate, both campaigns are doing all that they can to pull them into their pew.
Indeed, a Pew Forum survey last month found Catholics closely divided in the presidential race. Among all Catholics, the Pew researchers found Mr. Obama ahead, 47 percent to 42 percent. But that figure is boosted by Mr. Obama's stronger support among heavily Catholic Hispanic voters who are disproportionately concentrated in states such as Texas, California and New York that are not considered to be in play in November.
Considering just white, non-Hispanic Catholics, the Pew survey found a near dead heat, with 45 percent favoring the Republican and 44 percent the Democrat.
For Mr. Obama, that is a slightly weaker showing than either Mr. Gore or Mr. Kerry recorded at the same point in the campaign. (Mr. Kerry was ahead by 50 percent to 47 percent in an August 2004 Pew survey, although his Catholic support eroded by Election Day.)
The Pew researchers also reported that the intensity of Mr. Obama's support lagged Mr. Kerry's numbers. Only 21 percent of the Catholics surveyed in August said they "strongly" supported Mr. Obama, compared to 36 percent for Mr. Kerry at the equivalent point.
Mr. McCain faced the same problem. Just 17 percent of Catholic voters voiced strong support for him compared to 27 percent for President Bush four years ago.
Mr. Casey said he is confident that Mr. Obama can make gains in numbers and strength of support before November.
"There's no question that over the last 25 years or so, Democrats have struggled with garnering the share of the [Catholic] vote that, frankly, they should be getting," he said.
To do that, he added, Mr. Obama needs to "talk about his values, his faith, his struggles and also, a lot about policies and solutions for -- as the scriptures talk about, the least -- the last, and the lost."
The problem of abortion
One obvious impediment for Democrats is the subject of abortion, a make-or break issue for many Catholics and church leaders. Surveys and voting patterns, however, suggest that even for many Catholics who oppose abortion, it is not the sole determinant.
In tone, the platforms of the two parties went in opposite directions on the issue this summer. On substance, both sides hewed to their bedrock positions -- the Democrats, pro-abortion rights, the Republicans, anti-abortion.
But the Democratic platform, while affirming its support for Roe v. Wade, added language this year designed to strike a more accommodating tone.
"We also recognize that such health care and education help reduce the number of unintended pregnancies and thereby also reduce the need for abortions," it states.
"The Democratic Party also strongly supports a woman's decision to have a child by ensuring access to and availability of programs for pre- and post-natal health care, parenting skills, income support, and caring adoption programs."
The Republican platform, by contrast, was praised by prominent social conservatives for its uncompromising condemnation of abortion, including a call for a human life amendment to the Constitution and for legislation "to make clear that the 14th Amendment protections apply to unborn children."
Mr. Casey said it was "too simplistic," to view Catholic voters solely through the lens of the abortion issue. While strongly pro-life himself, Mr. Casey said that "you can make the case that many Catholics are as conflicted on abortion as others. ... Certainly some Catholics will disagree with [Mr. Obama] on abortion. I've tried to make the case that he is one who reaches out to bridge the differences ... who reaches across to [support policies] to actually reduce the number of abortions."
"More broadly," he added, "I think there is a lot of agreement among Catholics on issues like the [Iraq] war."
Mr. Brownback highlighted the abortion issue in his Seton Hill talk, telling a receptive crowd, "We have a big difference on the Supreme Court; we're one vote away from the court being in a position to overturn Roe v. Wade."
But after his talk he echoed the observation that Catholic votes would turn on a variety of issues.
"They are concerned about moral issues but they want to hear the whole package," he said. "They want to hear about life and marriage, but they're also asking, 'What about the economy?' 'What about energy? What about security?' "
Mr Brownback, a Catholic convert, acknowledged that it will be a challenge for the McCain campaign to turn that newfound energy into an effective grass-roots operation.
GOP effort 'lethargic'
Four years ago, both sides mounted intense and successful voter turnout operations. The GOP effort was rooted in a meticulously cultivated network of community contacts and outreach. Catholics, like evangelical Christians, were a big part of that. The campaign started work more than a year in advance of the election, collecting membership lists and enlisting a vast network of neighborhood volunteers.
That structure doesn't exist for the McCain forces. Mr. Brownback described the pre-convention grass-roots organizing of the GOP as "lethargic at best," for much of the last year.
"So I think they're behind organizationally from where the Bush organization was in '04," he said. "The party was more motivated going into that than what they have been this cycle."
But he maintained that the new, improved, post-convention GOP organization was "fired up and ready to move out ... and none too soon." The Obama campaign, in contrast, has been working for months at assembling grass-roots organizations, including Catholics, in key states.
"[Mr. Obama's] campaign has had literally hundreds of events where they've sat down and listened to people of faith," Mr. Casey said.
Sean Smith, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, said that in addition to the use of more prominent supporters such as Mr. Casey, "underneath that is the ground game, grass-roots, neighbor to neighbor."
He said the campaign was organizing a series of house parties and Sunday brunches aimed at nurturing a network of Catholic supporters.
Beyond those nuts and bolts, Mr. Casey contended that Mr. Obama, with steps such as his embrace of faith-based initiatives, had offered a break with a party that had sometimes seemed uncomfortable communicating with religious voters.
"I do think nationally, our party has made a lot of progress, certainly in the last decade, in making religion and faith part of the discussion ... in not being seen as the solely secular party," Mr. Casey said. "Democrats are every bit as faithful and concerned about religion on the national level as Republicans, but for a lot of reasons, what took hold over a generation was a sense that you talk about issues, and not about faith."
Mr. Smith noted hopefully that the choice of Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., a Catholic, as the Democrat's vice-presidential choice might also enhance the ticket's appeal to other Catholics. Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, speculated last week that Mr. Biden's selection might account for an uptick in the Democrats' Catholic support in Pennsylvania.
But having a Catholic on the ticket can cut both ways in an era in which some Catholic bishops have been increasingly outspoken in confronting Catholic politicians who support abortion rights.
In 2004, several bishops stated that Mr. Kerry, a Catholic, should be denied the sacrament of Communion because of his voting record on the issue. Earlier this summer, a group of Catholic bishops, one of them, Cardinal Justin Rigali of Philadelphia, issued a statement criticizing Mr. Biden for stating that while he believes that life begins at conception, the issues was a "personal and private" matter of religious faith he would not impose on others.
"Protection of innocent human life is not an imposition of personal religious conviction but a demand of justice," the bishops said.